Luis Arce Catacora will finish first when the votes are counted and will have achieved between six and ten points more than Morales in the failed elections of 2019. For that he needed some tools that led him to a victory with an unexpected advantage. The first was the correct strategy. While Carlos Mesa, Luis Fernando Camacho and other smaller forces bet on the MAS/anti-MAS cleavage (all presented themselves as the best option so that the previous ruling party would never return), the MAS emphasized the economic crisis and the stability as axes of discourse and opted to consolidate their hard vote as the number one public objective.
The MAS developed a campaign on the outskirts of the cities, with walks and small rallies, mixing union meetings with academic conferences to get away from the image that prevailed in Morales' last campaign. Arce and his strategists bet Decision Maker Email List on remote neighborhoods, on the poor and the impoverished from the coronavirus; for those who went from poverty to the middle class during the 14 years of Morales government and fell back into poverty due to the coronavirus; because of the nostalgia that the worsening of the crisis (at the beginning of May, 3.2 million Bolivians did not have enough to buy food, because of the pandemic and the quarantine) created for the boom years of the MAS.
For that, he had involuntary allies, both of whom came from the Bolivian East, the regions of the country that always resisted Morales. The first "aid" was that of the transitional government. The government of Jeanine Áñez was read as the continuation of the so-called "revolution of the pititas", the citizen revolt that preceded the police mutiny and the "suggestion" of resignation of the Armed Forces to Evo Morales.